Research

Publications

Despite the intention that sanctions, by design, should not harm civilians’ welfare, evidence shows that they can negatively affect health outcomes. In this study, I measure the impact of sanctions on international trade in medical supplies and cross-country mortality rates. I find that sanctions, particularly those imposed by the United States, decrease the volume of medical exports to targeted countries, potentially leading to worse health outcomes. I also discover that sanctions increase mortality rates in the targeted countries, particularly for women with HIV/AIDS infections. Termination of foreign aid, blockades, and partial embargoes have the most damaging effect on mortality.

"Quantifying the Trade Reducing Effect of Embargoes: Firm Level Evidence from Russia",  Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 56: 1121-1160. https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12667

In 2014, Russia responded to sanctions imposed by a coalition of Western countries with a retaliatory import embargo. I draw on this unique case study and a customs dataset on firm-level import transactions to investigate the ramifications of Russia's counter-sanctions on firm-level foreign trade. Using detailed data and a triple-difference estimation strategy, I examine micro-level dynamics and heterogeneities that aggregate data alone do not reveal. I identify the effects of the embargo on the extensive margin (the probability that a firm imports a particular product from a given country in a particular time period) and the intensive margin (the value of a firm's import transaction) of firm-level trade, as well as its effects on logged unit values. The main findings of this study show that the embargo had statistically significant negative impacts on extensive and intensive margins of firm-level trade. I also pinpoint evidence of multiple exemptions from the embargo and a large degree of heterogeneity of firm-level responses to the embargo based on firm attributes, such as firm size and government connection.

"The Effectiveness of Embargoes: Evidence From Russia", The World Economy, 00, 1– 35. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13344

While sanctions have been an increasingly popular instrument of Western foreign policy over the past several decades, retaliatory measures by non-Western targets of Western sanctions are a more recent development. In this study, I focus on the first such incident in recent history: the Russian retaliatory embargo imposed in August 2014 in response to the anti-Russian sanctions that have been in place since March 2014. I formulate a comprehensive approach to analyzing the impacts of such retaliations on trade and how retaliating countries deal with lost trade. Towards that goal, I use a quadruple difference approach with high-dimensional fixed effects to disentangle various effects of the retaliatory embargo on the extensive and intensive margins of trade. I find that such retaliation comes at a cost to both the retaliating country and the target of retaliation, while not being effective as Russian sanctions are still in place today. I estimate that the total loss of trade from such retaliation amounts to about 42 billion USD in the first 1.5 years after the imposition of the embargo. The disturbances caused by such retaliation destabilize bilateral trade by causing negative spillovers and significantly increase the costs of retaliation as an economic policy or political strategy. Note: This paper was written prior to the Russian invasion in Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

  "Firm Level Trade Effects of WTO Accession: Evidence from Russia", Review of International Economics, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12565

Joint work with Anca Cristea

This paper examines the impact of Russia's WTO accession on trade patterns at the firm level. A large literature of cross-country studies examines the long run trade effects of GATT/WTO membership. Our paper contributes to this literature by bringing short-run micro-level evidence from the experience of a large trading country. Using customs data on the import and export transactions of Russian firms over the period 2011-2015, we investigate the short-run responses of firm-level trade along the intensive and extensive margins following Russia's WTO accession in 2012. Our results indicate an increase in the number of foreign countries that Russian firms export to or import from, and a significant increase in the number of exported products. The evidence on the effects of the WTO accession on the intensive margin of firm level trade is mixed.  Additionally, we find suggestive evidence that the Russian retaliatory food embargo, imposed in response to the Crimean economic sanctions, might have been intended as a protectionist policy to help out a vulnerable domestic industry (i.e., agriculture) directly impacted by the country's WTO accession.

Online Appendix for "Firm Level Trade Effects of WTO Accession: Evidence from Russia" can be found here

Book chapters

Miromanova, Anna (2022). Chapter 3: Russia’s Approaches to Multilateral Sanctions, Multilateral Sanctions Revisited: Lessons Learned from Margaret Doxey, edited by A. Charron and C. Portela. McGill-Queen’s University Press, Montreal & Kingston, London, Chicago. pp. 51-64.

Working papers